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Over the past two weeks we’ve been revealing our choices for most of the Oscar categories. Here is a handy recap of those picks! Refer to this page often during tonight’s telecast to see if you should be agreeing with the winners! (Hint: use the “John” column)
| Adam | Brian | Jared | John | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picture | Hugo | The Artist | Midnight in Paris | |
| Director | Allen | Scorsese | Havanavicius | Malick |
| Actress | Mara | Mara | Williams | Streep |
| Actor | Dujardin | Dujardin | Dujardin | Oldman |
| Supporting Actress | Bejo | Bejo | Spencer | Chastain |
| Supporting Actor | Hill | Nolte | Branagh | Plummer |
| Original Screenplay | Midnight in Paris | Margin Call | The Artist | Midnight in Paris |
| Adapted Screenplay | Hugo | The Descendants | Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy | |
| Art Direction | Midnight in Paris | Hugo | Hugo | Hugo |
| Cinematography | The Tree of Life | Hugo | The Tree of Life | The Tree of Life |
| Costume | Anonymous | Jane Eyre | ||
| Film Editing | Hugo | Moneyball | The Descendants | |
| Makeup | Harry Potter | The Iron Lady | Harry Potter | The Iron Lady |
| Score | The Artist | The Adventures of Tintin | ||
| Song | The Muppets | The Muppets | The Muppets | |
| Sound Editing | Transformers | The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Transformers | Drive |
| Sound Mixing | Transformers | The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Transformers | Transformers |
| Visual Effects | Transformers | Rise of the Planet of the Apes | Harry Potter | Transformers |
| Animated Short | A Morning Stroll | A Morning Stroll | A Morning Stroll | Wild Life |
| Live Action Short | Time Freak | Time Freak | ||
| Documentary Short | Saving Face | The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom |
The 84th Academy Awards is almost here! Leading up to the event, we’re going to put all the hours we spent watching these films to good use by giving our thoughts on all the categories, big and small. We may not be experts on everything, but I daresay that’s never stopped anyone from blogging before. On the (very remote chance) you disagree with us or the (much more likely chance) you want to applaud our picks, please chime in below.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The nominees are:
- The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
- Bridesmaids, Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
- Margin Call, J.C. Chandor
- Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
- A Separation, Asghar Farhadi
JOHN
What a rich category this year as it contains two of my favorite films. I hope Midnight in Paris comes away with the win. It’s such a delightful movie and its success hinges around the script. It’s a film with well-formed characters (as necessary – I don’t think Ernest Hemingway needs to be too developed) and a clever story. It also has some interesting things to say about nostalgia and our relationship with the past. It’s not a profound message but it’s a theme I always find interesting to explore.
My other favorite here is Margin Call. It’s a terrific workplace drama where internal and external forces roil an investment bank over the course of a day. I think it would work splendidly on those terms but it also happens to be right up my political wheelhouse. The film could have easily been a screed against sleazy bankers but I think it takes a more nuanced approach by highlighting the absurdities of their world. The bankers muse that they don’t understand their work or how they make so much money, a sentiment I share. As the problems spread further up the ladder at the firm, our perspectives of the characters change and the villains shift. Plus each subsequent level knows less about markets but more about internal politicking.
I’m thrilled that Bridesmaids is here on a conceptual level, that the Academy is honoring not just a comedy but a raunchy one. I just didn’t respond to the film that much. I felt like it needed a tighter story and a bit better comedic rhythm (plus about 20 fewer minutes). Furthermore, the common film conceit of the main character doing ever more stupid things instead of just talking it out drives me nuts. The discussion around the screenplay for The Artist is going to revolve around whether a dialogue-free film can really have a great script. This ignores the real issue that the film is thin as hell in both theme and story. Any success the film has is due to its performances and visual style. Finally, A Separation just felt like two hours of people being stubborn to me. I wanted it to be more but it never grabbed me.
In my perfect world, the campaign for Contagion would have picked up some steam for its realistic and chilling depiction of a pandemic. The extraordinary amount of detail in the film really sells its realism. Going further afield, some recognition for the clever and thrilling Source Code would have made me very happy.
JARED
I certainly don’t agree with the Academy’s picks here, but I have to respect them. You’ve got a foreign film, a broad comedy, two dramedies (one of which has no dialogue), and a workplace drama set in the world of finance, by a first-time writer. Screenplay is one of the few categories where Oscar has some imagination, it would seem.
Margin Call didn’t do very much for me, though I appreciated certain aspects of it. I thought the way the story unfolded was kinda clever. And the comparison is a little awkward, but the film reminded me a little bit of this year’s Outrage (which I saw during the DC Film Festival) in how it was about the structure of a company and how that structure affects its impact. Also, any movie glorifying number crunchers can’t be all bad. But ultimately, I found the script less compelling as the movie went on, getting bogged down with the situation and all the characters in it.
I really wanted to like A Separation, since everyone was raving about the script. Instead, I found it to be Law and Order: Iran. OK, that’s not entirely fair, and learning a little about the police system in Iran was neat. But the only character I found interesting was the daughter, no one else was sketched out enough to really fascinate me. And the twists and turns of the plot were more bunny slope than black diamond.
Bridesmaids is one of the weaker films in the Apatow oeuvre, so of course it would be the one to be recognized by the Academy. Of course, a weaker Apatow film is funnier than 90% of films. And sure, it is great to recognize a comedy, and not just that, a female-written and -driven comedy. The movie had plenty of entertaining moments, of course, there’s no denying that. But the script, overall, wasn’t that strong. Almost none of the characters were well-developed, and the plot gets a little thing at times. I’m curious if the script would have been honored if a different actress had been cast in Melissa McCarthy’s part.
Midnight in Paris has a very good script. Allen shows a light touch, deftly moving between time periods to create an entertaining movie. But while it may be OK for the historical figures to be caricatures because they are so funny, the broad strokes don’t work nearly as well for characters in the modern era. Most scenes, save for when Michael Sheen is being pompous, are insufferable. Which I guess is maybe kinda the point? The film is breezy enough that it doesn’t really matter.
For me it has to be The Artist. And to repeat everyone else in the world, it is so wonderful and unexpected to see a silent film get this treatment. But a script is so much more than the dialogue. And for a silent movie to be so engrossing today, the script just has to be top notch. Hazanavicius goes broad comedy and dark melodrama with equal verve and skill. The movie is laugh out loud funny, and moving, and just plain wonderful. And that’s largely due to the fantastic script.
ADAM
Midnight in Paris
We’re taking a look at Oscar categories in advance of tomorrow’s show. Today we’re on Original Screenplay. The nominees:
- Another Year
- The Fighter
- Inception
- The Kids Are All Right
- The King’s Speech
John
This is a really tough category for me. There are three potential winners, each with its own pros and cons. Of course, that makes it easy to discard two. The Kids Are All Right has an interesting premise that it takes in a plot direction that I found not terribly interesting or powerful. I can see why other people reacted strongly to it, but to me it is a mild diversion with promise for much more. And to me The Fighter is painfully straight-forward and much more of an actors’ movie. I don’t know for sure, but the three screenplay and three story by credits screams screenplay by committee and the film sort of feels like it.
But what to do with the other three? There’s Inception, my favorite film of the year. But its success is so much more on the directorial and editing sides, to me. It didn’t get nominated in either of those categories so this could be its shot to be rewarded. I give it high points for having such a great concept and for the imagination required to create the different, interacting dream levels. But it really succeeds in how Nolan visualizes them as a director.
Another Year is a film I liked a great deal more than my colleagues. This is a picture that is very devoted to its theme of the ravages of the passage of time, which it supports beautifully. It does sacrifice plot for its theme, though to my mind that’s not a detriment. A scene that’s slow or subtle can have an impact. But there are several scenes that are both fairly uninteresting from a plot and character perspective AND not particularly good servants to the theme. The late scene featuring the characters of Mary and Ronnie in the greenhouse is an example. Furthermore, it should have been shorter.
I wonder if the way that Mike Leigh composes his movies has something to do with it. He famously relies on actors’ workshops to flesh out characters and plots. And the result is well-developed characters but some meandering scenes. It could use some tightening. The scenes could come together better or more explicitly explore the theme and the less effective ones could have been more direct.
And then there’s The King Speech, a film without a misstep. Every element is solid and it results in an amusing and rousing film. It also doesn’t have anything particularly outstanding. I feel like both Another Year and King’s Speech would have been successful as the same script in a different director’s hands. The same might not be said for Inception. Is that a fair way to judge a screenplay as a separate element? I don’t know.
So what is it? The one I loved for non-script reasons? The one with some really terrific parts and some notable downfalls? Or the one that’s totally solid but didn’t do anything that blew me away? That’s a tough choice. Today I’ll pick Inception, and I’ll be rooting for it on Sunday as it will be the only major category it has a chance in. But my mind may change.
Jared
Original Screenplay is often the category where the Academy will give a token nomination to a smaller, arty movie that is one of my favorite films of the year. It still makes me smile to think that Lars and the Real Girl received a nomination here. Of course, the Academy being the Academy, they also often use this category to recognize a smaller, arty movie that I really dislike. The Messenger last year, for example (over (500) Days of Summer!). Sadly, this year the academy has chosen the latter option and recognized Mike Leigh’s script for Another Year. Which was just not good. Now, I’ll give him credit for creating Lesley Manville’s character (though he obviously must share that with the actress). But in a sense, she’s quite similar to Sally Hawkins’s character in his prior film, Happy-Go-Lucky. Both are characters defined by their one-noteness. They are unique characters, to be sure, but hardly developed. And the rest of the movie, well, maybe someone out there thrills at the mundane details of a happily married older couple. I just call my parents.
If you hate sports movies and get a pretty big kick out of insulting working class folk, then I guess I see how you could appreciate The Fighter. Otherwise, I mean, the script is absolute dreck. If handed to me, I think I would have demanded every scene rewritten. The movie flits through time seemingly randomly, stopping to show unnecessary scenes and leaving out interesting or useful ones. There’s little to no understanding of the relationships of the characters, other than in the broadest strokes possible. The “humor” is even broader and extremely repetitive. And the boxing scenes were scripted by someone who might have played Punch-Out once. To me, the script failed at every conceivable level.
Maybe I’m the weird one, but I tend to prefer comedies to make me laugh, or at least smile a little. Of course, The Kids Are All Right isn’t terribly dramatic, so I guess you couldn’t call it a drama. I’m being a little harsh here, the film does at least bring up a number of interesting ideas. And it does a pretty good job establishing interesting characters. But the film never rose to the occasion. The dialogue is serviceable, but never stands out. The story is fine, but I think it is only a little interesting because of how few movies center on a lesbian couple. And the script is content with leaving things there.
I think the script to The King’s Speech is being underrated by a lot of non-Academy types. I’ll be the first to grant that the story arc and themes aren’t exactly novel to the realm of cinema. But so what? I don’t think a film has to be unique to be successful, it just has to entertain. And this script absolutely is entertaining. It keeps a good pace, has a consistently funny sense of humor, and hits plenty of emotional notes. If every film were like this one, sure, movies would start getting boring. But they aren’t, and the vast majority of movies could only dream of having a script of a quality as high as this one.
One thing that’s important to keep in mind is that a script is so much more than dialogue. All that action, for example, has to be first written down before the director and guys behind all the tech stuff get the chance to work their magic. Which is something you need to keep in mind when thinking about Christopher Nolan’s script for Inception. It is big and bold. It isn’t perfect, but it is wonderful. Cold and unfeeling, with poor character development, sure. But fun as all get out. Without question one of those movies that makes you go, “Wow.” And isn’t that, really, what movies should be about?
Oscar nominees are announced on the 25th. Yay! So let’s summarize what we (the royal we, at least) know. Keeping in mind, of course, that when it comes to the Academy, no one knows anything. Especially me. This time: Best Original Screenplay.
VIRTUAL LOCKS
- David Seidler, The King’s Speech
- Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
- Christopher Nolan, Inception
Seidler is a great story. He’s over seventy years old with no major features to his credit and has been chasing this film much of his life. Plus, it is a heck of a script, an Oscar bait movie that exceeds expectations. I personally don’t understand the love for The Kids Are All Right. But the script has been nearly universally praised, and there’s a palpable feeling that the Academy wants to recognize Cholodenko‘s voice. Let’s make one thing clear: Inception isn’t nearly as deep as people seem to be making it out to be. I think they actually mean Memento. Nolan‘s script, though, is big and bold and most of its misses are noble failures. I’m a sucker for intellectual sci-fi thrillers, so I’ll be pretty happy to see one get nominated here.
LAST TWO IN
- Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
- Mike Leigh, Another Year
You may want to have a fire extinguisher on hand for anyone who claims to know the final two spots in this category, because their pants are surely on fire. Black Swan is a psychological horror flick that crossed into the mainstream and Oscar because of the big names associated with it. I was under the impression that people generally thought Heyman, Heinz, and McLaughlin‘s script was the movie’s weak spot, but it has been nominated for everything and the film is en fuego. Mike Leigh has six Oscar nominations, four of which were for original screenplays. So yeah, I’m not going to count him out until he misses.
FIRST ALTERNATE
- Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, The Fighter
I’m now on the record expressing how much I disliked The Fighter‘s script. So maybe my bias is placing this film on the wrong side of the line. It has every shot at getting a nomination. Which would mean the guy who wrote Air Bud would be Oscar-nominated. Just sayin’.
DARK HORSES
- Derek Cianfrance, Cami Delavigne, Joey Curtis, Blue Valentine
- Nicole Holofcener, Please Give
The Academy has a pretty well-established trend of using a slot in this category for a smaller film. If that spot isn’t filled by Another Year, look for the gritty Blue Valentine or sublime Please Give to sneak in.
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
- Sean Anders, John Morris, She’s Out Of My League
- Nicholas Fackler, Lovely, Still
- Jacob Tierney, The Trotsky
- Raymond De Felitta, City Island
Grouching Week continues with our discussion of a category that we all feel is depressingly sub-par: Best Screenplay Written Originally for the Screen. First, your nominees:
- “The Hurt Locker” Screenplay by Mark Boal
- “Inglourious Basterds” Screenplay by Quentin Tarantino
- “The Messenger” Screenplay by Allesandro Camon and Oren Moverman
- “A Serious Man” Screenplay by Ethan and Joel Coen
- “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter and Thomas McCarthy
Jared kicks us off again, with some wishful thinking this time:
- As with the adapted screenplays, four of the five films nominated for Original Screenplay also garnered Best Picture nominations. I have the feeling the others Grouches are going to disagree with me here, [Ed. note -- WRONG] but I think this category is extremely weak. Granted, it wasn’t a particularly strong year for Oscar-contending original screenplays, it is just unfortunate the Academy lacked imagination when deciding these nominees.
As much as Adam might be upset about The Messenger getting a nomination, I wonder if he’d be more upset if I made him watch it for no reason at all. I honestly have no idea what other people see in this film. Military deaths are horrific things, and I cannot possibly imagine the toll it takes on their families or what it must be like to be the one who delivers the news. Everyone involved in this horrible scenario absolutely deserves to have their story told. But told well, which I don’t believe is happening here. I would have believed this film was a Lifetime channel original. The story has no cohesiveness, the dialogue doesn’t lead to any memorable scenes, and frankly, nothing really happens.
I really think Quentin Tarantino needs a writing partner, as his self-indulgence reaches all sorts of new heights in Inglourious Basterds. I’m fairly certain every scene ran at least two minutes too long. And where the use of disparate storylines was an effective storytelling device in most of his prior work, here it serves no real purpose other than imprinting the film with his watermark, along with his homages and in-jokes and lots of other things which may add up to his distinctive style, but obscure the actual film.
The support for A Serious Man is completely baffling to me. Mostly because I don’t really think it is exists at all. I clearly don’t connect with the Coens the way other people seem to do so. And while I didn’t find this film nearly as frustrating as some of their other works, I don’t really see the genius behind it. Sure, I’ll give them some credit for a relatively novel main character. But otherwise, seems like middling stuff with a few unnecessary arthouse tricks.
As I mentioned before, I found The Hurt Locker’s screenplay to be relatively weak. I think Bigelow, her cast and her crew put forth a yeoman’s effort to rescue Mark Boal’s script. To be fair, I’m positive some of the action scenes were delicately and exquisitively scripted. But there’s probably a legit argument that while the interactions between the bomb squad (and between the squad and the bombs) were pretty strong, everything else could have used some sharpening.
So almost by default, I’m going with Up, and not just due to residual bitterness over WALL-E‘s loss. Sure, the opening montage was better than just about anything else in movies this year. But the rest of the film was also consistently strong. It managed to run the gamut of comedy, drama, action, and adventure while never really seeming hokey, no small feat if you consider the specifics of the story. And if you think about it, the characters weren’t especially likable, at least not at first. The script may not have been hard-hitting, uber-dramatic, or even trendsetting. But to me, it was undeniably entertaining throughout, and ultimately, isn’t that what a film should be?
If I were choosing, I’d have gotten rid of four of these nominees, so I imagine I feel there are many snubs. The most obvious one, of course, is (500) Days of Summer. A huge miss by the Academy, in my opinion.
John is surprisingly succinct in his dismissal of this category:
- I agree with Jared that this is a fairly weak slate. Which isn’t to say any of them are poor efforts, but they don’t really jump out at me as clearly outstanding.
Three of them suffer from the same problem: they create several great scenes that don’t really add up to a terrific whole. Inglourious Basterds doesn’t even really try to add up to a whole as it’s a series of vignettes. I’d argue the film succeeds more on its performances and visual style anyway. Some of the scenes in The Messenger are absolutely gut-wrenching, but the narrative around those scenes sort of falters. And I’d say the same is true with The Hurt Locker though it works better.
It’s a tough call for me on the last two. I’m still puzzled by A Serious Man, but it sure is fascinating to ponder. It’s thoughtful, interesting, funny, and clever. But my winner is Up. One thing I had sort of forgotten about it until I watched it again recently is how ridiculously funny it is- one of the funniest of the year in fact. It has all you could ask for in an animated film: intriguing premise, developed and interesting characters, clever and funny dialogue, and a compelling story full of intelligence and heart. Pixar certainly makes films that look great, but they really shine because the writing is always so terrific.
Here are Adam’s thoughts, and I’m just thankful I wrote mine after his:
- Will Win: ?. I’m actually not sure who will win this one (or I do, and I just don’t want to key the other Grouches in on it). This has to be the closest race in the top 8 categories. I think it definitely will come down to The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds, though.
I Want to Win: Inglourious Basterds. As stated above, Quentin Tarantino’s fantastic script is in the running for the award and I couldn’t be happier. In my mind, this was the best script of the year (followed by In the Loop). I can’t believe that people are unsure whether to pick this over The Hurt Locker.
Dark Horse: The Messenger. And thank god it IS a long shot. In the case of this script, I fully agree with Jared’s assessment.
Ranking:
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up
4. A Serious Man
5. The Messenger
Grouches Critiques: As of the writing of this, I have only seen Jared and John’s write-ups. While I agree with them that this is a weak slate of movies as well as their comments on The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man, and The Messenger (especially Jared’s), both of their takes on Inglourious Basterds are way off the mark. The only thing I can think of is they went into the wrong movie. Otherwise, I have to get used to the fact that John’s horrible taste in movies is starting to rub off on Jared. Also, Up is not as great as they both seem to think it is. I actually am a big fan of a lot of Pixar’s work, but it’s last two movies…while good…were not the darlings that everyone seems to think they are. Wall-E was funnier, and Up had a less annoying plot/message, but they were no Incredibles or Finding Nemo.
Random Notes: Wow. What a weak slate of movies.
And here are the correct opinions, written by Brian:
- Even though I liked all five of these films more than you, Jared, I still think this is a weak group, but I don’t think that (500) Days of Summer would have saved it. This category was pretty much screwed from the beginning — unless of course they included Zombieland, though we all know that would never have happened.
Having just watched The Messenger last night, I was at first a little befuddled by Jared’s comments. I thought Luc Besson’s directing was pretty good and Mila Jovovich was outstanding. But then I watched the correct movie, the one with Ben Foster and Woody Harrelson, and I understood. But I don’t entirely agree — the first hour was riveting — each time they knocked on a door I tensed up — fearful of the next death announcement. But once the focus shifted from their duty to Foster’s personal life and attachment to Samantha Morton, it sort of went off the rails. There was a good movie in there — somewhere — maybe a great live-action short, but the script failed halfway through the film.
I’m still trying to understand what the hell happened in A Serious Man, and while Slate published a pretty good analysis today, I still don’t think that bodes well for the screenplay. I appreciated a lot of what the Coen brothers did with the script — and the schlubby portrait of the titular character Larry Gopnik was quite good — but no script should be this obtuse and senseless. Maybe if they made a pop-up video version of the movie it could have been more successful.
The Hurt Locker was a tremendous piece of filmmaking — but the script wasn’t a contributor to it. Jeremy Renner’s side-trip into the streets of Baghdad was unneccessary, and the mystery of the body-bomb kid was too transparent. The film will get deservedly recognized elsewhere — it doesn’t belong in this category.
Gah, am I really going to agree AGAIN with Jared and John? Inglorious Basterds was brilliant in its own way. I was hoping that Adam would go into greater depth on why he loved it — but maybe he’s holding his fire for the Best Picture category. As for why I liked it, well, its Jews killing Nazis. What’s not to like? Beyond the strength of the plot, I thought that Tarantino’s willingness to throw historical accuracy out the window was refreshing — and his whimsical take on the sober subject of World War II captivated me.
It’s a very very close race for me, but Up takes my vote. Its such an imaginative script, and the characters are incredibly developed considering how long we get to know them. And it has a TALKING DOG!
Well this morning the Official Mistress of the Golden Grouches (c), Anne Hathaway, announced the nominations — and there were few surprises among the acting nods, a couple shockers in the Best Picture, but overall things went according to plan. Nonetheless, we still pulled together our thoughts for a short post.
Brian: My biggest disappointment is that with Penelope Cruz’ nomination, I now have to see Nine, something that I had been avoiding doing. No real desire to see it at all, but it can’t be nearly as bad as Lovely Bones, which fortunately, did indeed garner Stanley Tucci a nomination. It would have been tragic had we had to sit through that dreck for no reason whatsoever.
With the best pictures, I was quite happy to see District 9 get the nod there and in screenplay — I held out hope for director until getting slapped in the face by Lee Daniels name being read. As Jared says below, Blind Side is the only real WTF here, and even that it’s rather pointless since it has no shot at winning. This batch of nominations also has me quite excited to see A Serious Man when it comes out on DVD next week.
Other thoughts: disappointed that Damon got nominated for the wrong role and left Molina in the dust. Happy to see Moore get snubbed for A Single Man as her role was more or less the same as Susan Sarandon’s in Lovely Bones and was less funny. I had forgotten all about In the Loop until John started his well-deserved campaign for it, and I’m happy that John got something to gloat about. By far my biggest disappointment though was Marvin Hamlisch getting crapola for The Informant. His score was such an integral character in the great movie that it deserved to win the award, not just the nod.
Looking forward to stewing over these races in the “should win” discussions — especially the screenplays. Lots to ponder. And I think the 10 films for best picture was a wild success — good job…academy?
Adam: Editor’s Note: Adam did not submit anything so I wrote it for him. Inglorious Basterds: Yay. If only It’s Complicated were nominated, then I could make fun of Brian more. I’ll find other ways.
Jared, via iPhone in the DFW airport: Most surprising to me is the relative lack of true surprises. There were some, of course, but I’d guess most Oscar prognosticators did pretty well, especially if they stayed conservative.
People will hate on The Blind Side, and sure, it probably isn’t a top ten film. However, in my opinion it is miles better than Crazy Heart, Invictus, and The Messenger, all of which now appear to have been viable contenders. Like, it just isn’t close at all. So while I would have preferred Star Trek, The Hangover, or In The Loop, I can settle for the middle ground.
I’ve heard people claim this is the wrong year for ten nominees. But you know what? This a very strong lineup, and for me, stacks up against much of this decade’s best picture groups. And really, assuming the expansion got District 9 and Up into the group, I’m fully prepared to call it a success.
I’m a little surprised we didn’t see something crazy in Supporting Actress. Sorta seems like the Academy threw its collective hands in the air and gave up. There was definitely room for another film to have made a play here. No Basterds is a surprise, I guess, but there seemed a very unWeinstein-like unfocused campaign.
Finally, the screenplay categories were a general success. My efforts to not jinx them went mostly rewarded. In the Loop getting a nomination is such a good thing. But, of course, the one nomination I really really wanted to see, (500) Days of Summer, missed. Probably at the hands of The Messenger, which I interpret as a direct, intentional, personal slap in my face.
John: Before going to bed last night I nearly made a quick post amending my earlier “biggest hopes” declarations. But I decided not to and both of those hopes came true!
I had been surprised at the amount of In the Loop predictions prognosticators were making yesterday, which gave me hope for an Adapted Screenplay nomination, whereas before I thought of it as only a longshot. But then it happened! It was my big fist pump moment of the morning. It really has made my day.
My other hope was that Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs would get left off the Animated Feature slate in favor of some of the more interesting films that came out this year. When Coraline was announced first (nominees are announced alphabetically) it was obvious this wish had come true and it was fun to see what would take its spot. The Secret of Kells is an interesting choice, although not the one I would make.
A few other quick thoughts:
- A boring slate of acting nominees. Very by the numbers. Penelope Cruz was a surprise, but only because her long-presumed nomination seemed derailed by Nine‘s failure.
- No Avatar in Original Screenplay. Not a problem for most of the Grouches, but interesting that such a juggernaut would miss. 500 Days of Summer also missed and that had seemed like the indie that would break out in a writing category. I suspect not being in the picture for Best Picture hurt it.
- Hooray for Invictus not making Best Picture even though it appears to be supplanted by the awful The Blind Side.
- No Makeup nod for District 9 despite the film’s heavy use of prosthetics. Instead the aging makeup for Il Divo and the hairstyles of The Young Victoria get in, along side Star Trek.
- No Score nod for The Informant! excludes that gem of a film completely.
- I’m generally happy with the Best Song slate. Thankfully “See You” from Avatar was left off.
So it all comes down to this. Nominations come out tomorrow and the Grouches are staking their pristine reputations on their predictive powers! Brian, Jared, and John took a stab at the top eight categories while John and Jared went on to predict the rest of the non-short categories. There’s a lot of overlap, so any picks where we differ has been shaded.
The Big Eight:
And the rest (note we also predicted how many Best Song nominees there will be, since there can be 0, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
Who will reign supreme? We’ll declare a winner tomorrow!














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