With all the awards and nominations rolling in, the Grouches decided to look at the 8 big categories, predict who we think will win the Oscar, and jibber jabber a bit about the nominees. Next up is Best Actress.

Our picks:

John: Julie Christie
Brian: Ellen Page
Adam: Ellen Page
Jared: Julie Christie

Some disagreement here.

I think Julie Christie has the edge for her work in Away From Her. She’s won most of the critics awards so far and will probably get a Golden Globe win because both Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard are in the Comedy or Musical category. She’s also the type of woman in the type of role that seems to get a lot of love from the Academy: distinguished, older, British actress playing a woman stricken by a terminal illness. She won a Best Actress Oscar in 1965 and has been nominated twice since (in 1971 and 1997). I’m probably the only person on earth who wasn’t thrilled by Christie’s performance, which I found a bit over the top, but I do concede that she has the upper hand for the win.

For me, the real best actress is between two other women, one of which was chosen by Brian and Adam. Ellen Page was terrific in Juno, which will likely go into the Oscars as the contender with the best box office returns. She does a fine job delivering the hip dialogue in such a way that it doesn’t feel too forced or full of itself. But the Academy has a well-known bias against comedies and it may want to go for something more weighty. That could leave Marion Cotillard for her work in La Vie en Rose. We all had problems with the film, but that’s not Cotillard’s fault, who is a dynamo on the screen. She gets to show off her wide range and also has some great performance scenes.

Christie, Page, and Cotillard are the consensus front-runners. The other Golden Globe nominees are Amy Adams (Enchanted), Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray), Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd), Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Jodie Foster (The Brave One), Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart), and Keira Knightley (Atonement). My guess is that Blanchett, Jolie, and Knightley have the edge for the last two Oscar nominations. Adams is an outside shot if the voters choose to recognize a children’s movie. Sweeney Todd isn’t getting any love from the guilds or critics awards, which is likely bad news for Carter. But whoever else gets the nod is probably going to play second fiddle to the powerful Christie-Page-Cotillard triumvirate.

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