In case you missed the news, The Independent Spirit award nominations come out Tuesday morning (streaming at spiritawards.com, announced by Eva Mendes and Jeremy Renner).  Which is of special importance this year, because your humble bloggers ponied up for a membership to Film Independent this year and so actually have a vote to this shindig.  Scary, right?  Anyway, we’ll have lots more coverage coming up, but I figured I’d put together my predictions for the nominations.  You might remember we did this for the Oscars last year and actually didn’t do too badly.  Well, with Oscar, no one knows anything, but at least there’s a lot of people trying to guess, so you can employ a little wisdom of the crowds.  For the Independent Spirit awards, I’ve only seen one attempt.  One tricky thing is that it isn’t exactly clear which films are eligible.  The rules state the production must be American, with a budget of $20 million or less, have played this year and not have been submitted for eligibility in prior years.  Below I have my list of possible contenders, I’m sure I’m missing some and have a few ineligibles on there.

Here goes nothing:

BEST PICTURE
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
Please Give
Winter’s Bone
(Next five: City Island; Cyrus; Greenberg; Rabbit Hole; Tiny Furniture)

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Derek Cianfrance, Blue Valentine
Sofia Coppola, Somewhere
Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone
(Next Five: John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole; Nicole Holofcener, Please Give; Jay and Mark Duplass, Cyrus; Lena Dunham, Tiny Furniture; Noah Baumbach, Greenberg)

BEST LEAD MALE
Michael Douglas, Solitary Man
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Ed Norton, Leaves of Grass
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
(Next Five: Ryan Reynolds, Buried; Andy Garcia, City Island; Jesse Eisenberg, Holy Rollers; James Franco, Howl; Casey Affleck, The Killer Inside Me)

BEST LEAD FEMALE
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
(Next Five: Catherine Keener, Please Give; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Amanda Seyfried, Chloe; Zoe Kazan, The Exploding Girl; Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice)

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Bill Murray, Get Low
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Michael Shannon, The Runaways
(Next Five: Bill Murray, Get Low; Paul Reubens, Life During Wartime; John Ortiz, Jack Goes Boating; Jonah Hill, Cyrus; Chris Cooper, Remember Me)

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Julianne Moore, Chloe
Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
(Next Five: Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Julianna Margulies, City Island; Amy Ryan, Jack Goes Boating; Rebecca Hall, Please Give; Mia Wasikowska, The Kids Are All Right)

BEST FIRST FEATURE
Get Low
Happythankyoumoreplease
Jack Goes Boating
Sympathy for Delicious
Tiny Furniture
(Next Five: The Company Men; Solitary Man; I Love You Philip Morris; Buried; Welcome to the Rileys)

BEST SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
Get Low
The Kids Are All Right
Please Give
Winter’s Bone
(Next Five: City Island; Rabbit Hole; Somewhere; Blue Valentine; Howl)

LIST OF POTENTIALLY MAYBE POSSIBLY ELIGIBLE FILMS:
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Buried
City Island
Chloe
The Company Men
Conviction
Country Strong
Cyrus
The Dry Land
The Exploding Girl
The Extra Man
Frankie and Alice
Frozen
Daddy Long Legs
Easy A (OK, I don’t really buy it, but it fits the criteria!)
Flipped
Get Low
Greenberg
The Good Guy
Happythankyoumoreplease
Holy Rollers
Howl
I Love You Phillip Morris
It’s Kind of a Funny Story
Jack Goes Boating
The Joneses
The Kids are All Right
The Killer Inside Me
Leaves of Grass
Let Me In
Life During Wartime
Lovely, Still
Middle Men
Mother and Child
Night Catches Us
Please Give
Rabbit Hole
Remember Me
The Runaways
Solitary Man
Somewhere
Sympathy for Delicious
Tiny Furniture
Welcome to the Riley’s
Winter’s Bone
The Yellow Handkerchief
Youth in Revolt

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