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Another month comes to a close and the big Oscar night is just a few weeks off. We finally have some changes in our top five lists.
John
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. Get Low
4. Green Zone
5. Carlos
Adam
1. Inception
2. Red
3. The King’s Speech
4. Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
5. The Social Network
Brian
1. The Social Network
2. Inception
3. Please Give
4. Four Lions
5. Toy Story 3
Jared
1. The Social Network
2. Inception
3. The King’s Speech
4. She’s Out of My League
5. Hot Tub Time Machine
Nominations are just a few hours away, so we’re finally revealing our predictions. I doubt you’re reading this before the nominations are announced, but see what we predicted and gape in awe at our prowess/snicker at our idiocy.
Later we’ll tally up our predictions and see who did best! I think this year we have a decent amount of differences (highlighted in pink). I’m amused at how often Jared and I differed on technical categories with him always choosing Black Swan.
Oscar nominees are announced on the 25th. Yay! So let’s summarize what we (the royal we, at least) know. Keeping in mind, of course, that when it comes to the Academy, no one knows anything. Especially me. This time: Best Picture
VIRTUAL LOCKS
- The Social Network
- The King’s Speech
- Black Swan
- The Fighter
- Inception
- True Grit
Before the PGAs, The Social Network had won everything. Now it is has just won almost everything. It could mean we are seeing the start of the inevitable front-runner backlash, but that’s a discussion for after nominations. When word of The King’s Speech first arrived, you could hear lots of collective groaning about Oscar bait and how the Academy is a complete sucker for anything to do with British royalty. Two funny things, though: pretty much everyone actually likes the film, and it really isn’t Oscar baity at all. Speaking of unlikely Oscar movies, how about a ballerina horror film likely to pull down $100 million at the box office? Black Swan pulled off the trick. The Fighter, led by a strong cast, seemed to peak at the right time, nomination-wise, and should continue the Academy’s love affair with boxing movies. One of the few movies released prior to Oscar season likely to get an Oscar love in major categories, Inception pretty much speaks for itself. A vast, cold, scifi/psychological epic, it is completely unlike traditional Oscar movies and yet so obviously one. Perhaps the easiest prediction, before any of these movies had been seen, was that Joel and Ethan Coen remaking a classic western would be a best picture nominee. But hey, they still had to follow through on the thing, and by all accounts, True Grit does so.
LIKELY IN
- Toy Story 3
- The Kids Are All Right
Metacritic has Toy Story 3 has the second-best reviewed wide release of 2010, as does imdb (to different movies, interestingly enough). So clearly lots and lots of people really like this film. Up‘s nomination last year showed that the move to ten best picture nominees allowed the Academy to be OK with nominating an animated film for the big prize, so there’s no real reason it should miss. I’ve heard a couple people theorize that The Kids Are All Right‘s spot is in danger. I certainly don’t know enough to dispute that, I’m just a little hard-pressed to see how it could miss when its rivals appear to be indier and/or not having the support from at least one acting nomination, like this one.
LAST TWO IN
- Winter’s Bone
- The Town
I have this (completely unfounded, I’m sure) feeling that a lot of the love for Winter’s Bone comes from Hollywood patting itself on the back for supporting indie movies and wanting to show they are totally OK with films taking place in America’s backwoods. I’m not sure if anyone really loved The Town, but undoubtedly many people liked it, so I’m wondering if its broad appeal could lead it to nab the final slot for the big prize.
FIRST ALTERNATE
- 127 Hours
Most predictions you’ll read have the prior two films and 127 Hours in a battle for the final two spots. This one was directed by recent Oscar winner Danny Boyle and features a likely Oscar-nominated performance by Oscar co-host James Franco. So it certainly has a legit chance. I just happen to think it peaked a little too early and that it wasn’t quite compelling enough to hold up.
DARK HORSES
- Blue Valentine
- The Ghost Writer
- Shutter Island
- Another Year
- The Way Back
- Biutiful
- How to Train Your Dragon
If voters want to get indie and perhaps prove a point, they may turn to Blue Valentine. The Ghost Writer connected with a good number of people, and the Academy wasn’t afraid with The Pianist to give awards to Polanski. I’m still confused at why Shutter Island, a Martin Scorsese film that grossed over $100 million domestically isn’t making a bigger play here. I’ve prattled on a number of times about the Academy’s love for Mike Leigh, the logic certainly applies to Another Year. I’m not sure if The Way Back isn’t good or is a victim of a poor release strategy, but it was supposed to be a contender and then it wasn’t, for reasons still unclear. John says Biutiful and How to Train Your Dragon are dark horses, and he is smarter than I am.
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
- Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
- Please Give
Oscar nominees are announced on the 25th. Yay! So let’s summarize what we (the royal we, at least) know. Keeping in mind, of course, that when it comes to the Academy, no one knows anything. Especially me. This time: Best Director.
VIRTUAL LOCKS
- David Fincher, The Social Network
- Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
- Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Confession time: I don’t really have any clue how to discern exactly what the director’s contributions to a film are. And I don’t think many other people know either, other than a general assumption that good movie=good directing. People are saying that David Fincher was exactly the director to make Aaron Sorkin’s script shine. Maybe that’s true, I just hope the evidence is stronger than that regatta scene. This’ll be Aronofsky‘s first Oscar nomination, an honor for which he’s probably overdue. I don’t really see what others do in the movie, but given the script’s weakness, sure, I’m happy to pass some credit to the director for elevating the film into something better. I really liked The Damned United, and the film was different enough from the book that I’ll begrudgingly pass some credit to screenwriter Peter Morgan and director Tom Hooper. His follow-up, of course, has been a bit more successful. I look forward to seeing his work in the future and I imagine that’ll only increase once I get around to watching Prime Suspect.
LIKELY IN
- Christopher Nolan, Inception
Like everyone else, I do believe there’s a spot for Nolan, I’d just feel a little more comfortable if the buzz for the film was a little more palpable. Still, it’d be shocking if he gets snubbing after creating such a visionary, successful film.
LAST ONE IN
- David O. Russell, The Fighter
I’ve always heard that if you can’t say something nice, you should shut your big fat mouth.
FIRST ALTERNATES
- Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
- Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
- Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
I was really tempted to put the brother Coen in that last spot, but since I haven’t seen that anywhere else, I figured it is just my bias against that film in the fifth spot. The Academy loves them some Coen Bros, but they do only have the one directing nomination (for No Country for Old Men, which they won). I dunno, I won’t be surprised at all if they get the nomination. The claustrophobia of 127 Hours sure is different from the vastness of Slumdog Millionaire, huh? Maybe Boyle‘s film was released just a little too early to hit at the Oscars, or maybe it wasn’t quite as good as originally expected. I hope to see Lisa Cholodenko get a directing nomination someday, but this year is just so tough, with so many well-respected auteurs in line to get their due.
DARK HORSES
- Ben Affleck, The Town
- Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone
- Mike Leigh, Another Year
- Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island
Affleck‘s two for two in critically acclaimed directing successes and this one even made a nice chunk of a change. This kid may just have a career in the industry. After what Down to the Bone did for Vera Farmiga and this film did for Jennifer Lawrence, if I were an agent with a starlet on my hands, I’d be busting my balls to get her an audition for whatever Granik has next on her plate. As I mentioned elsewhere, it is always dangerous to count Mike Leigh out with the Academy. But maybe next time he should make sure his film’s trailer doesn’t make it seem like the most boring film ever. Shutter Island just edged out The Departed as Scorsese‘s highest-grossing film (in worldwide dollars). What, now that’s he mainstream the Academy has no use for him?
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
- Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Oscar nominations arrive Tuesday, January 25. To prepare, we’re giving you our sharpest insight and predictions. Everyone cares about the big categories, but you need in depth coverage from visionaries like us to know: What are some nominations in technical categories that must happen?
Jared: Scott Pilgrim’s effects are essential

Some might say the visual effects are the only thing keeping Scott Pilgram afloat. But Jared wouldn't say that, and it would be an abuse of this poster's editorial position to suggest anything of the sort
This isn’t the spot to discuss all the merits of Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, many though they may be. The film didn’t connect with nearly as many people as it should have, most frequently dismissed as something along the lines of “that video game movie.” Well, you know what made it seem like a video game movie? The visual effects! Regardless of whether you think the film was actually the generation-defining movie of the year or a trifle never rising above something meant for kids, I think you have to concede the visuals were both wildly inventive and crucial to the story.
As a devotee of the graphic novels, I’m a little biased, but more than any Facebook movie, I think this one better sums up kids turning to adults these days. And that’s due in an extremely large part to the whiz-bang visuals. Frequently borrowing from or reminiscent of video games, sure, but that’s the entire point. Edgar Wright and his team unleashed an often unrelenting barrage of visual effects, but always in service of the story. And always, as is perhaps most important, looking really really cool.
John: Fighter costumes effective and entertaining
My support is going to Mark Bridges for Best Costume for The Fighter. Now, no one has accused me of having a sense of style, but I appreciated the clothing in the film for both defining the time period and the characters. Set in the early 1990s in blue collar Massachusetts, the film makes good use of the era’s most garish fashion.
A film set in the near past often has a hard time establishing its time period. Fewer electronics on sets, maybe. Older cars. But the clothing is the most effective, without resorting to misplaced Desert Storm jokes. Plus, in this case, the clothing establishes the characters’ class.
Melissa Leo’s character has some really zany outfits, but the one scene that stands out in my head is Christian Bale leaving his crack house, multicolored parachute pants flapping in the wind.
Oscar nominees are announced on the 25th. Yay! So let’s summarize what we (the royal we, at least) know. Keeping in mind, of course, that when it comes to the Academy, no one knows anything. Especially me. This time: Best Actress.
VIRTUAL LOCKS
- Natalie Portman, Black Swan
- Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
- Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
I remember the good ol’ days when I could talk about Portman‘s riveting and undeniably Oscar-worthyperformance of a ballerina in a yin-yang struggle for perfection. Too bad she’s dead to me now. I’ll be honest, I don’t quite see why Bening should be nominated for her portrayal of a lesbian Mama Bear protecting her cubs, but she appears to be in a two horse race for the statue. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not a slight on the actress (I would probably give a nomination this year for Mother and Child), probably more a reflection that everyone else in the world seems to see something in the film that I don’t. I’m also maybe a little bit lower on Lawrence than others, but that may be more due to my issues with the script and my belief that people have just zeroed in on the concept of a backwoods girl struggling to keep her family afloat than looking at the actual movie itself.
LIKELY IN
- Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
I haven’t seen any prognosticators leave Kidman out of the final five, but her place just feels a little shakier to me than the others. Maybe it is because I’m not really sure Rabbit Hole has registered with voters. Or me, I guess, because I haven’t felt like being mortally depressed for two hours yet.
LAST ONE IN
- Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
The last spot in this category is huge crapshoot. I changed my pick a few times before settling on four-time Oscar nominee Moore, who I think gave a more memorable performance than Bening. John bemoaned the traditional Oscar wave of films the Academy loves racking up nomination after nomination, but it does seem like it will happen again and seems as good a reason as any to pick someone for this slot.
FIRST ALTERNATES
- Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
- Lesley Manville, Another Year
- Hilary Swank, Conviction
- Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Yeah, there’s a lot of them, but I don’t think anyone would really be surprised should any of these four women pull down the last nomination. Michelle Williams stole my heart in The Baxter, so I’m probably rooting for her here. Mike Leigh has a well-established history of getting his actresses Oscar noms, so Manville has a great shot even if she may be the least recognizable name on the list. I’m really hoping I don’t have to see Conviction, which probably means that Swank should be the leading contender here. We’ve discussed Steinfeld‘s category fraud, we’ll just have to wait and see if she ends up the category she should be in, the category she’ll win, or if the confusion made her miss in both.
DARK HORSES
- Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Rapace has been mentioned on enough lists that maybe she’s a bit more than a dark horse, in a weaker year she might have been able to break through. A bunch of people are obsessed with I Am Love, the film clearly isn’t my cup of tea, but Swinton turns in her usual solid performance.
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Emma Stone, Easy A (duh)
Naomi Watts, Mother and Child
Patricia Clarkson, Cairo Time
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