Oscar nominations will be revealed on the 24th.  As arbitrary as the nominations can sometimes seem, there’s definitely method to their madness.  Over the next week, we’ll dive into the potential nominees in each of the big eight categories.  This time around: Actor.

VIRTUAL LOCK

  • George Clooney, The Descendants
  • Brad Pitt, Moneyball
  • Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Mark Harris had a great quote about these three: “I can’t remember a year in which the top three candidates for best actor coasted into nomination day with less discussion of the specific merits of their acting.”  I won’t argue against the idea that Oscar has a thing for hot young ingenues, but these three are getting nominations because (among other reasons) they are extremely handsome gentlemen.  Pitt and Clooney won’t be on my ballot, but it is hard to get too worked up here.

GOOD BET

  • (none)

LIKELY IN

  • (none)

ON THE BUBBLE

  • Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
  • Michael Fassbender, Shame
  • Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  • Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
  • Demian Bichir, A Better Life

All five of these actor have had meaningful precursor nominations and are on at least Oscar pundits’s predictions, so it really seems like anyone’s guess.  DiCaprio seemed liked a sure thing heading into Oscar season, but then people actually saw J. Edgar and realized it wasn’t terribly good.  That said, it has earned about $15 million more at the box office than the other four combined.  Fassbender does go full frontal (albeit not nearly as much as you are expecting).  He also is terrific, but is dealing with a challenging movie that is easy to dismiss as him just having sex all the time.  Storywise, Oldman is the lead character, but honestly I think I’d have moved him down to supporting and argued there’s no lead actor at all.  The film underperformed, and if you hear “spy movie” and expect Oldman to be Bond or Bourne, you’ll be sorely disappointing as his role is all stoicism and measured reactions.  Oldman is also somehow still searching for his first Oscar nomination.  If you have seen Michael Shannon in anything, and haven’t seen this bit, you need to watch him in this sketch.  Shannon is all kinds of awesome and actors apparently love his performances, it may come down to how many people actually watched the film.  I’ve talked about Bichir elsewhere.  What is tough is that other than DiCaprio, none of the actors on this list have particularly showy roles.

DARK HORSES

  • Ryan Gosling, Ides of March
  • Ryan Gosling, Drive
  • Woody Harrelson, Rampart

And Gosling also got a Globe nom for Crazy, Stupid, Love.  Drive is a divisive movie and Ides of March  never really found traction (though it has seen a late surge).  Where Chastain’s supporters have rallied around The Help, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus forming for Gosling.  Pretty much no one saw Rampart, which is a hurdle, even though Harrelson is supposed to be great, and he was nominated for an Oscar for The Messengers, Moverman’s last film.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED

  • Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
  • Tom Hardy, Warrior
  • Steve Carell, Crazy, Stupid, Love.
  • Thomas Dekker, Kaboom
  • David Hyde Pierce, The Perfect Host
  • Chris Hemsworth, Thor
  • J.K. Simmons, The Music Never Stopped